The Bears' points allowed with Caleb Williams and without Caleb Williams
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bears were 0.5 points over with Caleb Williams and 5.3 points under without Caleb Williams over their last 35 games, 32 games against 3. The plain averages are 24.2 and 16.7, a difference of 7.6. All 3 games on a short week were with Caleb Williams. Both playoff games were with Caleb Williams.
Caleb Williams, quarterback: 7,583 passing yards, 1,084 pass attempts and 662 completions in 32 of those 35 games.
3 games without Caleb Williams is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +5.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Caleb Williams vs without Caleb Williams is about what you’d expect.
A +7.6 difference in points allowed with Caleb Williams vs without Caleb Williams is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs GB | L | 20 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs MIN | L | 30 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ DET | L | 23 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ SF | L | 38 | 21.2 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | @MIN | L | 30 | 22.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsDET | L | 34 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 6 | 21.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @GB | W | 22 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | vsMIN | L | 27 | 20.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @DET | L | 52 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs DAL | W | 14 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ LV | W | 24 | 18.9 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 24 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs NO | W | 14 | 20.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ BAL | L | 30 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 42 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 20 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @MIN | W | 17 | 22.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs PIT | W | 28 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ PHI | W | 15 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @GB | L | 28 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 3 | 19.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsGB | W | 16 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @SF | L | 42 | 26.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDET | L | 19 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsGB | W | 27 | 22.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs LA | L | 20 | 30.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 37 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsMIN | L | 9 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 7 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 12 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @GB | L | 31 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NE | W | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @SEA | W | 17 | 23.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.