The Bears' points allowed at home and away
, ,
Through the Bears' game on Oct 22, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bears were 4.6 points under at home and 6.0 points over away over their last 35 games, 19 games against 16. The plain averages are 18.4 and 29.9, a difference of 11.5. Both playoff games were at home.
The Bears' −10.6 at home vs away over expected ranks 32nd of the 32 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 35 games through Oct 22, 2026.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
−4.6
away
+6.0
020
A −10.6 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
18.4
29.9
2040
A −11.5 difference in points allowed at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs NE | L | 19 | 15.9 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs GB | L | 20 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs MIN | L | 30 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ DET | L | 23 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ SF | L | 38 | 21.2 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | @MIN | L | 30 | 22.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsDET | L | 34 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 6 | 21.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @GB | W | 22 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | vsMIN | L | 27 | 20.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @DET | L | 52 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs DAL | W | 14 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ LV | W | 24 | 18.9 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 24 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs NO | W | 14 | 20.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ BAL | L | 30 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 42 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 20 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @MIN | W | 17 | 22.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs PIT | W | 28 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ PHI | W | 15 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @GB | L | 28 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 3 | 19.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsGB | W | 16 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @SF | L | 42 | 26.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDET | L | 19 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsGB | W | 27 | 22.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs LA | L | 20 | 30.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 37 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsMIN | L | 9 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 7 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 12 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @GB | L | 31 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vsNE | W | 24 | 22.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 2, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 22.