The Bears' passing yards with Caleb Williams and without Caleb Williams
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bears were 26.3 yards over with Caleb Williams and 11.3 yards under without Caleb Williams in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 264.2 and 236.7, a difference of 27.5.
Caleb Williams, quarterback: 1,267 passing yards, 158 pass attempts and 112 completions in 5 games this season, 96% of CHI’s passing yards in those games.
3 games without Caleb Williams is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A +37.6 difference in passing yards over expected with Caleb Williams vs without Caleb Williams is about what you’d expect.
A +27.5 difference in passing yards with Caleb Williams vs without Caleb Williams is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 269 | 248.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 192 | 238.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 247 | 255.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 268 | 233.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ GB | L | 195 | 255.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 305 | 245.4 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NE | W | 308 | 245.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 247 | 212.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.