The Bears' carries with Kyle Monangai and since Kyle Monangai’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bears were 11.1 carries over with Kyle Monangai and 2.0 carries over since Kyle Monangai’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 39.8 and 30.5, a difference of 9.3. All 4 first-half games were with Kyle Monangai. All 4 second-half games were since Kyle Monangai’s last game.
Kyle Monangai, running back: 324 rushing yards, 60 carries and 5 receptions in 4 games this season, 38% of CHI’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +9.0 difference in carries over expected with Kyle Monangai vs since Kyle Monangai’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kyle Monangai and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A +9.3 difference in carries with Kyle Monangai vs since Kyle Monangai’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kyle Monangai and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 39 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 31 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 35 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 54 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ GB | L | 24 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 33 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NE | W | 30 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 35 | 28.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.