The 49ers' rushing yards with Deebo Samuel Sr. and since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 11.1 yards over with Deebo Samuel Sr. and 7.2 yards over since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 128.6 and 124.5, a difference of 4.1. All 3 division games were with Deebo Samuel Sr.. All 3 first-half games were with Deebo Samuel Sr..
Deebo Samuel Sr., receiver: 206 receiving yards, 16 receptions and 20 targets in 5 games this season, 12% of SF’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +3.9 difference in rushing yards over expected with Deebo Samuel Sr. vs since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +4.1 difference in rushing yards with Deebo Samuel Sr. vs since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 174 | 113.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 95 | 123.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 140 | 120.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 140 | 120.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 94 | 109.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 126 | 115.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ATL | L | 123 | 119.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.