The 49ers' points with Mac Jones and without Mac Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 1.9 points under with Mac Jones and 2.9 points over without Mac Jones over their last 35 games, 8 games against 18. The plain averages are 22.8 and 26.7, a difference of 4.0. Both playoff games were without Mac Jones.
Mac Jones, quarterback: 2,155 passing yards, 293 pass attempts and 203 completions in 13 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Mac Jones
−1.9
without Mac Jones
+2.9
020
A −4.8 difference in points over expected with Mac Jones vs without Mac Jones is about what you’d expect.
plain
22.8
26.7
2040
A −4.0 difference in points with Mac Jones vs without Mac Jones is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Mac Joneswithout Mac Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ TB | W | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 17 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ GB | L | 10 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 10 | 23.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CHI | W | 38 | 21.2 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | vs LA | L | 6 | 24.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 17 | 23.1 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs DET | L | 34 | 22.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ ARI | L | 24 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @SEA | W | 17 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ NO | W | 26 | 23.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsARI | W | 16 | 29.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs JAX | L | 21 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | @LA | W | 26 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @TB | L | 19 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 20 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 15 | 19.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 34 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsLA | L | 26 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ARI | W | 41 | 25.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 20 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 26 | 23.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs TEN | W | 37 | 28.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ IND | W | 48 | 23.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 42 | 26.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsSEA | L | 3 | 22.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 23 | 21.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @SEA | L | 6 | 20.1 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsLA (neutral) | W | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 35 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsARI | W | 36 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 24 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @SEA | W | 32 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ATL | L | 20 | 24.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 9 games in 2024 are neither with Mac Jones nor without Mac Jones: Mac Jones had no game for the team that season, and sit out.