The 49ers' points with Deebo Samuel Sr. and without Deebo Samuel Sr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 0.6 points over with Deebo Samuel Sr. and 1.8 points under without Deebo Samuel Sr. over their last 35 games, 13 games against 3. The plain averages are 23.8 and 22.3, a difference of 1.4.
Deebo Samuel Sr., receiver: 470 receiving yards, 43 receptions and 62 targets in 13 of those 35 games.
3 games without Deebo Samuel Sr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A +2.4 difference in points over expected with Deebo Samuel Sr. vs without Deebo Samuel Sr. is unusual: shuffle which games were with Deebo Samuel Sr. and it comes up 5 times in 100.
A +1.4 difference in points with Deebo Samuel Sr. vs without Deebo Samuel Sr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Deebo Samuel Sr. and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ TB | W | 23 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 17 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ GB | L | 10 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 10 | 23.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CHI | W | 38 | 21.2 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | vs LA | L | 6 | 24.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 17 | 23.1 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs DET | L | 34 | 22.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ ARI | L | 24 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @SEA | W | 17 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ NO | W | 26 | 23.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsARI | W | 16 | 29.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs JAX | L | 21 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | @LA | W | 26 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @TB | L | 19 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 20 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 15 | 19.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 34 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsLA | L | 26 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ARI | W | 41 | 25.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 20 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 26 | 23.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs TEN | W | 37 | 28.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ IND | W | 48 | 23.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 42 | 26.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsSEA | L | 3 | 22.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 23 | 21.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @SEA | L | 6 | 20.1 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsLA (neutral) | W | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 35 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsARI | W | 36 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 24 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @SEA | W | 32 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ATL | L | 20 | 24.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 19 games in 2025 are neither with Deebo Samuel Sr. nor without Deebo Samuel Sr.: Deebo Samuel Sr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.