The 49ers' points of margin with Mike Evans and since Mike Evans’ last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 9.0 points over with Mike Evans and 12.5 points under since Mike Evans’ last game over their last 35 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 11.2 and -9.0, a difference of 20.2. All 4 home games were with Mike Evans. All 3 division games were with Mike Evans.
Mike Evans, receiver: 420 receiving yards, 27 receptions and 39 targets in 6 of those 35 games.
One game since Mike Evans’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Mike Evans
+9.0
since Mike Evans’ last game
−12.5
-10010
plain
11.2
-9.0
01020
The games
with Mike Evanssince Mike Evans’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ TB | W | 3 | -8.3 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs SEA | L | -3 | -0.2 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ GB | L | -28 | -6.4 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ BUF | L | -25 | -8.0 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CHI | W | 25 | 0.1 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | vs LA | L | -6 | -0.1 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ MIA | L | -12 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs DET | L | -6 | -9.6 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ ARI | L | -23 | -2.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @SEA | W | 4 | -10.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ NO | W | 5 | 5.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsARI | W | 1 | 9.9 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs JAX | L | -5 | -0.4 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | @LA | W | 3 | -7.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @TB | L | -11 | 4.2 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 10 | 7.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ HOU | L | -11 | -4.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 10 | 4.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsLA | L | -16 | -2.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ARI | W | 19 | 4.4 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 11 | 7.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 18 | 6.9 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs TEN | W | 13 | 12.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ IND | W | 21 | -4.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 4 | 5.3 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsSEA | L | -10 | -5.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 4 | -0.2 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @SEA | L | -35 | -7.2 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsLA (neutral) | W | 20 | 0.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 22 | 2.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsARI | W | 6 | 4.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 10 | 0.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @SEA | W | 3 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 6 | 4.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ATL | L | -9 | 3.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 28 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Mike Evans nor since Mike Evans’ last game: Mike Evans had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.