The 49ers' points allowed with Nick Bosa and without Nick Bosa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 2.8 points under with Nick Bosa and 1.4 points over without Nick Bosa over their last 35 games, 11 games against 24. The plain averages are 21.5 and 24.5, a difference of 2.9. Both playoff games were without Nick Bosa.
Nick Bosa, defensive lineman: 6.5 sacks in 10 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Nick Bosa
−2.8
without Nick Bosa
+1.4
-1001020
A −4.2 difference in points allowed over expected with Nick Bosa vs without Nick Bosa is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.5
24.5
10203040
A −2.9 difference in points allowed with Nick Bosa vs without Nick Bosa is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Bosa and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
with Nick Bosawithout Nick Bosa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ TB | W | 20 | 29.6 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 20 | 23.9 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ GB | L | 38 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 35 | 30.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CHI | W | 13 | 21.0 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | vs LA | L | 12 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 29 | 22.2 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs DET | L | 40 | 30.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ ARI | L | 47 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @SEA | W | 13 | 28.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ NO | W | 21 | 18.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsARI | W | 15 | 20.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs JAX | L | 26 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | @LA | W | 23 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @TB | L | 30 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 10 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 26 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 24 | 21.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsLA | L | 42 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ARI | W | 22 | 21.7 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 9 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 8 | 17.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs TEN | W | 24 | 17.5 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ IND | W | 27 | 26.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 38 | 21.3 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsSEA | L | 13 | 26.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 19 | 21.3 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @SEA | L | 41 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsLA (neutral) | W | 7 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 13 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsARI | W | 30 | 21.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 14 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @SEA | W | 29 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 17 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ATL | L | 29 | 21.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.