The 49ers' points allowed with Nick Bosa and since Nick Bosa’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 12.7 points under with Nick Bosa and 1.7 points over since Nick Bosa’s last game in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 10.0 and 23.8, a difference of 13.8. Both away games were since Nick Bosa’s last game. All 4 second-half games were since Nick Bosa’s last game.
Nick Bosa, defensive lineman: 2 games this season.
2 games with Nick Bosa is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −14.4 difference in points allowed over expected with Nick Bosa vs since Nick Bosa’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Bosa and it comes up 14 times in 100.
A −13.8 difference in points allowed with Nick Bosa vs since Nick Bosa’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Bosa and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 7 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 13 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 30 | 21.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 14 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 29 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 17 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ATL | L | 29 | 21.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.