The 49ers' carries with Deebo Samuel Sr. and since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 0.7 carries over with Deebo Samuel Sr. and 0.6 carries under since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 27.8 and 26.0, a difference of 1.8. All 3 division games were with Deebo Samuel Sr.. All 3 first-half games were with Deebo Samuel Sr..
Deebo Samuel Sr., receiver: 206 receiving yards, 16 receptions and 20 targets in 5 games this season, 6% of SF’s carries in those games.
2 games since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +1.3 difference in carries over expected with Deebo Samuel Sr. vs since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.8 difference in carries with Deebo Samuel Sr. vs since Deebo Samuel Sr.’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 30 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 27 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 23 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 35 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 24 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 29 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ATL | L | 23 | 26.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.