The 49ers' points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the 49ers were 4.8 points over at home and 2.4 points over away in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 29.5 and 26.0, a difference of 3.5. Both first-half games were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+4.8
away
+2.4
0510
A +2.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
29.5
26.0
20253035
A +3.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 35 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 36 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 24 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 32 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ATL | L | 20 | 24.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.