Zay Flowers’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Zay Flowers was 12.9 yards under at home and 17.3 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 87.0 and 67.3, a difference of 19.8.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−12.9
away
−17.3
-100-50050
A +4.4 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
87.0
67.3
050100150
A +19.8 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ IND | W | 150 | 67.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs DAL (neutral) | W | 84 | 97.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 118 | 111.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 53 | 88.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 66 | 81.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 137 | 75.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 0 | 100.6 | |
| Nov 5, 2026 | vs JAX | L | 6 | 112.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.7 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 58%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.