Zay Flowers’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Zay Flowers was 31.9 yards over at home and 18.6 yards under away in 2026, 2 games against 4. The plain averages are 127.5 and 67.3, a difference of 60.3.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+31.9
away
−18.6
-100-50050
A +50.5 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
127.5
67.3
050100150
A +60.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ IND | W | 150 | 68.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs DAL (neutral) | W | 84 | 99.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 118 | 114.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 53 | 89.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 66 | 83.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 137 | 76.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 0 | 102.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 59%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.