Zach Ertz’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed tight ends, Zach Ertz was 4.0 yards under at home and 9.1 yards under away in 2026, 1 game against 1. The plain averages are 13.0 and 9.0, a difference of 4.0.
One game at home is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−4.0
away
−9.1
-50
plain
13.0
9.0
910111213
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 9 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | 13 | 17.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 0 | 10.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed tight ends in its other 2026 games, plus 2.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for tight ends that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s tight ends’ receiving yards in his games, 34%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.