Xavier Worthy’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Xavier Worthy was 2.3 yards over at home and 7.6 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 38.7 and 28.5, a difference of 10.2.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+2.3
away
−7.6
-20020
A +9.9 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
38.7
28.5
204060
A +10.2 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 18 | 39.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs IND | W | 25 | 33.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 20 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ LV | W | 70 | 43.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 73 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 11 | 30.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DEN | L | 13 | 37.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 28%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.