Wil Lutz’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Wil Lutz was 0.5 field goals under at home and 0.3 field goals over away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.3 and 2.3, a difference of 1.0.
field goals a game over expected
at home
−0.5
away
+0.3
-20
A −0.8 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.3
2.3
0123
A −1.0 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ KC | L | 1 | 2.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs JAX | W | 2 | 1.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 0 | 2.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 2 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 3 | 1.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 2 | 2.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.