Tyler Shough’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Tyler Shough was 9.1 yards under at home and 34.2 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 212.3 and 268.7, a difference of 56.3.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−9.1
away
+34.2
0100
A −43.3 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
212.3
268.7
100200300400
A −56.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 410 | 272.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 252 | 235.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LV | L | 255 | 246.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 286 | 226.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 96 | 191.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NYG | W | 144 | 195.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 278 | 232.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 0.8 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.