Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence was 10.8 yards under at home and 45.0 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 212.3 and 208.0, a difference of 4.3. Expected was 29.8 yards lower at home than away.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−10.8
away
−45.0
-500
A +34.2 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
212.3
208.0
200220240
A +4.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 245 | 206.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 189 | 247.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs NE | W | 182 | 238.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CIN | W | 227 | 258.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs PHI (neutral) | W | 331 | 226.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs HOU (neutral) | L | 306 | 249.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs IND | W | 210 | 223.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.