Tee Higgins’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Tee Higgins was 44.8 yards over at home and 14.4 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 123.7 and 88.8, a difference of 34.9. Both division games were away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+44.8
away
+14.4
050
A +30.3 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
123.7
88.8
50100150
A +34.9 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs TB | W | 59 | 65.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 95 | 91.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 90 | 61.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs JAX | L | 157 | 85.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 22 | 60.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 148 | 83.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 155 | 85.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 49%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.