Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed running backs, Saquon Barkley was 2.7 yards over at home and 5.0 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 51.0 and 40.3, a difference of 10.7.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
+2.7
away
−5.0
0
A +7.6 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
51.0
40.3
20406080
A +10.7 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 83 | 39.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 9 | 56.3 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 82 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | 8 | 43.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 62 | 62.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | 30 | 41.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed running backs in its other 2026 games, plus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for running backs that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s running backs’ rushing yards in his games, 54%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.