Sam Darnold’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Sam Darnold was 37.2 yards under at home and 121.0 yards over away in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 164.2 and 328.5, a difference of 164.3.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−37.2
away
+121.0
-1000100
A −158.2 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 13 times in 100.
plain
164.2
328.5
100200300
A −164.3 difference in passing yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs NE | W | 13 | 210.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ WAS | L | 379 | 205.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 168 | 188.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 195 | 200.5 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 278 | 209.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs KC | W | 257 | 196.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 188 | 211.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 89%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.