Puka Nacua’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Puka Nacua was 2.0 yards over at home and 24.2 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 99.3 and 96.5, a difference of 2.8. Expected was 23.4 yards lower at home than away.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+2.0
away
−24.2
0
A +26.3 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
99.3
96.5
80100120
A +2.8 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | 74 | 90.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 125 | 124.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 138 | 99.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 80 | 103.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 68 | 117.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 80 | 89.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.7 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 68%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.