Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes was 63.1 yards over at home and 23.0 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 279.3 and 239.3, a difference of 40.1.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+63.1
away
+23.0
0100
A +40.1 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
279.3
239.3
200300
A +40.1 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 184 | 252.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs IND | W | 382 | 201.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 246 | 222.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ LV | W | 225 | 248.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 272 | 194.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 165 | 164.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DEN | L | 321 | 229.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.