Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed tight ends, Mike Gesicki was 39.3 yards over at home and 18.6 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 64.7 and 15.7, a difference of 49.0. Both division games were away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+39.3
away
−18.6
050
A +57.9 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
64.7
15.7
204060
A +49.0 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs TB | W | 78 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 37 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs JAX | L | 40 | 20.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 4 | 42.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 6 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 76 | 24.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed tight ends in its other 2026 games, plus 2.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for tight ends that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s tight ends’ receiving yards in his games, 64%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.