Mike Evans’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Mike Evans was 4.0 yards under at home and 66.6 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 1. The plain averages are 64.5 and 113.0, a difference of 48.5. All 3 games outside the division were at home. Both first-half games were at home.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−4.0
away
+66.6
050
plain
64.5
113.0
406080100
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs LA (neutral) | W | 49 | 53.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 54 | 58.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 34 | 73.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 76 | 66.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 113 | 46.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 94 | 75.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.