Matthew Stafford’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford was 57.2 yards over at home and 68.8 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 272.3 and 300.7, a difference of 28.4.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+57.2
away
+68.8
0100
A −11.5 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
272.3
300.7
200300
A −28.4 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | 155 | 227.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 327 | 167.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 390 | 218.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 317 | 226.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 383 | 245.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 222 | 235.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 195 | 250.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 157 | 212.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 99%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.