Malik Nabers’ receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Malik Nabers was 2.6 yards under at home and 9.6 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 93.0 and 77.7, a difference of 15.3.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−2.6
away
−9.6
-50050
A +7.1 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
93.0
77.7
50100150
A +15.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 69 | 98.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 1 | 67.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 26 | 123.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 112 | 86.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ WAS | T | 121 | 86.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NO | L | 165 | 72.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 111 | 107.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 59%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.