Lamar Jackson’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson was 5.8 yards over at home and 52.8 yards under away in 2026, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 228.5 and 162.0, a difference of 66.5.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+5.8
away
−52.8
-200-1000100
A +58.6 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
228.5
162.0
0100200300
A +66.5 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ IND | W | 324 | 178.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs NO | L | 235 | 214.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs DAL (neutral) | W | 186 | 213.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 222 | 230.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 0 | 251.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 86%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.