Ladd McConkey’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Ladd McConkey was 1.0 yards over at home and 0.2 yards over away in 2026, 2 games against 4. The plain averages are 58.5 and 42.3, a difference of 16.3. All 3 second-half games were away.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+1.0
away
+0.2
0
A +0.8 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
58.5
42.3
050
A +16.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 82 | 55.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs LV | L | 35 | 59.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 66 | 52.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 0 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ KC | L | 17 | 42.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | 86 | 37.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 36%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.