Kyler Murray’s passing yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Kyler Murray was 64.5 yards under at home and 25.7 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 138.3 and 202.3, a difference of 64.0.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−64.5
away
−25.7
-1000
A −38.8 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
138.3
202.3
100200
A −64.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 18 | 201.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 168 | 196.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 247 | 199.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 229 | 218.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 150 | 207.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | 210 | 269.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 88%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.