Keenan Allen’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Keenan Allen was 6.4 yards under at home and 14.3 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 59.0 and 37.0, a difference of 22.0.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−6.4
away
−14.3
-200
A +7.8 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
59.0
37.0
20406080
A +22.0 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BAL | L | 32 | 63.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ KC | L | 5 | 40.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 63 | 65.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 45 | 48.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs TEN | L | 82 | 67.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 31 | 44.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 67 | 72.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 35%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.