Ka'imi Fairbairn’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Ka'imi Fairbairn was 0.7 field goals over at home and 0.4 field goals over away in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 2.0 and 2.5, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 0.8 field goals lower at home than away. Both division games were away. All 4 games outside the division were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
field goals a game over expected
at home
+0.7
away
+0.4
-1012
A +0.3 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
2.0
2.5
1234
A −0.5 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 2 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ IND | L | 1 | 2.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 4 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 2 | 0.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.