Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Justin Jefferson was 6.5 yards under at home and 28.7 yards under away in 2026, 2 games against 4. The plain averages are 68.0 and 49.8, a difference of 18.3. All 4 games on a normal week were away.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−6.5
away
−28.7
-60-40-200
A +22.2 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
68.0
49.8
406080
A +18.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 92 | 81.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 55 | 81.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 32 | 67.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 79 | 71.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 44 | 68.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | 33 | 94.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 51%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.