Justin Herbert’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Justin Herbert was 77.8 yards under at home and 8.2 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 174.0 and 219.0, a difference of 45.0.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−77.8
away
+8.2
-1000
A −86.1 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
plain
174.0
219.0
150200250
A −45.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 209 | 238.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs LV | L | 192 | 255.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 226 | 269.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 189 | 161.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs DEN | L | 121 | 261.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ KC | L | 204 | 226.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | 257 | 185.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.