Jordan Love’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Jordan Love was 90.8 yards over at home and 34.5 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 310.8 and 250.8, a difference of 60.0. Both games on a short week were at home.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+90.8
away
+34.5
0100200
A +56.3 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
310.8
250.8
200300
A +60.0 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 387 | 141.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 145 | 211.7 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 312 | 224.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ TB | W | 197 | 217.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 367 | 213.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 276 | 236.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ DET | L | 274 | 294.3 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 288 | 205.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.