Jordan Addison’s receiving yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Jordan Addison was 36.1 yards under at home and 9.1 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 24.0 and 59.0, a difference of 35.0.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−36.1
away
−9.1
-500
A −26.9 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.0
59.0
050
A −35.0 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 0 | 68.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 21 | 68.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 90 | 56.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 52 | 54.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 20 | 57.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | 66 | 79.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 43%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.