Joe Burrow’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Joe Burrow was 152.4 yards over at home and 3.9 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 381.3 and 242.8, a difference of 138.6. Both division games were away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+152.4
away
+3.9
0100200
A +148.5 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
plain
381.3
242.8
200300400
A +138.6 difference in passing yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs TB | W | 254 | 212.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 207 | 265.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 282 | 230.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs JAX | L | 428 | 231.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 190 | 231.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 292 | 228.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 462 | 242.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.