Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Jaylen Waddle was 3.8 yards over at home and 25.5 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 52.8 and 26.0, a difference of 26.8.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+3.8
away
−25.5
050
A +29.4 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
52.8
26.0
50100
A +26.8 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ KC | L | 2 | 48.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs JAX | W | 138 | 71.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 10 | 40.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 35 | 49.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 19 | 52.6 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 24 | 38.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 48 | 55.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 39 | 44.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 37%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.