Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was 22.5 yards over at home and 51.4 yards over away in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 113.6 and 139.0, a difference of 25.4.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+22.5
away
+51.4
050
A −29.0 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
plain
113.6
139.0
80100120140
A −25.4 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs NE | W | 122 | 101.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 155 | 96.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ WAS | L | 128 | 90.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 76 | 91.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 102 | 86.2 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 134 | 75.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs KC | W | 150 | 75.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 118 | 100.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 68%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.