Jared Goff’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Jared Goff was 29.3 yards over at home and 116.0 yards over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 238.5 and 336.7, a difference of 98.2. Both division games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+29.3
away
+116.0
0100200
A −86.7 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
238.5
336.7
200300400
A −98.2 difference in passing yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs NO | W | 206 | 253.7 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 327 | 252.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 269 | 197.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CAR | L | 412 | 182.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 271 | 226.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs GB | W | 303 | 206.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 176 | 179.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.