Jameis Winston’s passing yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Jameis Winston was 11.6 yards over at home and 6.4 yards under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 173.3 and 145.7, a difference of 27.7.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+11.6
away
−6.4
-1000100
A +18.0 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
173.3
145.7
0100200300
A +27.7 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | @ LA | L | 111 | 132.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 118 | 189.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs ARI | W | 250 | 151.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ WAS | T | 326 | 156.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NO | L | 152 | 144.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 0 | 167.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 65%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.