Jalen Hurts’ passing yards at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts was 89.8 yards under at home and 45.1 yards under away in 2026, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 148.0 and 208.5, a difference of 60.5.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
−89.8
away
−45.1
-100-500
A −44.8 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
148.0
208.5
100150200250
A −60.5 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 203 | 263.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 264 | 267.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 153 | 240.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | 93 | 212.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 220 | 263.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.