Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed tight ends, Jake Ferguson was 4.0 yards under at home and 13.0 yards under away in 2026, 2 games against 4. The plain averages are 31.0 and 7.5, a difference of 23.5.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
−4.0
away
−13.0
-20-100
A +9.0 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
31.0
7.5
02040
A +23.5 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 6 | 21.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 43 | 39.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs BAL (neutral) | L | 23 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 11 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs TB | L | 19 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ GB | L | 13 | 15.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 0 | 21.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed tight ends in its other 2026 games, plus 2.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for tight ends that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s tight ends’ receiving yards in his games, 51%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.