Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Jacoby Brissett was 5.6 yards over at home and 29.7 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 219.7 and 212.0, a difference of 7.7. Expected was 31.7 yards higher at home than away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+5.6
away
+29.7
-50050100
A −24.1 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
219.7
212.0
100150200250
A +7.7 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 277 | 172.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs SEA | L | 95 | 160.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ SF | L | 280 | 188.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 166 | 172.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs DET | L | 292 | 265.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LA | W | 218 | 172.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs DEN | L | 272 | 216.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 119 | 206.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 90%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.