Harrison Mevis’ field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Harrison Mevis was 1.2 field goals under at home and 0.6 field goals over away in 2026, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.0 and 2.5, a difference of 2.5.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
field goals a game over expected
at home
−1.2
away
+0.6
-1012
A −1.8 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.0
2.5
01234
A −2.5 difference in field goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | 0 | 2.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 0 | 1.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 4 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 1 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 0 | 1.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.