Harrison Butker’s field goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed kickers, Harrison Butker was 0.9 field goals over at home and 0.6 field goals under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 2.7 and 1.0, a difference of 1.7.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
field goals a game over expected
at home
+0.9
away
−0.6
012
A +1.5 difference in field goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
2.7
1.0
1234
A +1.7 difference in field goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | field goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs IND | W | 4 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ LV | W | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 1 | 1.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DEN | L | 1 | 1.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed kickers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.1 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for kickers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s kickers’ field goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.