Geno Smith’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Geno Smith was 28.5 yards over at home and 31.4 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 251.5 and 226.8, a difference of 24.8. Expected was 35.1 yards lower at home than away.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+28.5
away
−31.4
-100-50050
A +59.8 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
251.5
226.8
200300
A +24.8 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 215 | 274.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 247 | 214.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 321 | 286.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 119 | 244.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 182 | 216.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | 252 | 227.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MIA | L | 287 | 218.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 290 | 242.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.