Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed receivers, Garrett Wilson was 9.8 yards over at home and 7.5 yards under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 67.5 and 64.3, a difference of 3.3. Expected was 14.1 yards lower at home than away.
receiving yards a game over expected
at home
+9.8
away
−7.5
0
A +17.3 difference in receiving yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
67.5
64.3
50100
A +3.3 difference in receiving yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | receiving yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 79 | 82.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs GB | L | 57 | 63.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DET | L | 107 | 76.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 27 | 65.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 104 | 56.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | 44 | 62.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MIA | L | 26 | 49.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LV | L | 83 | 62.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed receivers in its other 2026 games, minus 0.2 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for receivers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s receivers’ receiving yards in his games, 42%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 99% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.