Drake Maye’s passing yards at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed quarterbacks, Drake Maye was 50.3 yards over at home and 10.1 yards over away in 2026, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 272.3 and 233.2, a difference of 39.1.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
at home
+50.3
away
+10.1
0100
A +40.2 difference in passing yards over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
272.3
233.2
200250300350
A +39.1 difference in passing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 178 | 160.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 208 | 240.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 199 | 256.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BUF | W | 269 | 258.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs LV | W | 374 | 226.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 235 | 199.2 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 321 | 213.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 199 | 226.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed quarterbacks in its other 2026 games, plus 1.6 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for quarterbacks that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s quarterbacks’ passing yards in his games, 99%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.